VICO - Notes on Iran: We Called It
Bottom line up front: We called the Iran situation better than prediction markets — and we did so weeks in advance. Here is the data and some predictions for what may come next.
A number of you have reached out asking for our take on Iran and how we did. The short answer: our models saw this coming, and the data speaks for itself.
Below is a look at how our forecasts developed over the past six weeks, how they compared to Polymarket and Kalshi, and what our model is saying now.
Israel Strikes Iran — Resolved 100% ✓
This is the clearest vindication. Our Monitor (Bloomberg Ticker VICOKNWT) tracked the question “Israel overtly strikes Iran again in 2026?” from January 20th onward. The model was bullish from the start.
Tracking began: January 20, 2026 — opening probability: ~58%
Resolved: February 28, 2026 — 100.0% ✓
The model climbed steadily from ~58% at open to the high 90s well before the event, with only minor dips along the way. This was not a last-minute spike. It was a sustained, confident call.
US Strikes Iran — The Key Call
This is where our model really distinguished itself from the market. Here is how the forecast evolved over the course of February in our weekly newsletters:
January 29: 35% → 40% odds on the US striking Iran in the next month. The model was more bullish on an Israeli strike (69.5%), leading us to the view that the US would likely act in tandem with the Israelis rather than go it alone.
February 12: 46% → 76% odds for the US to strike Iran before March 31.
February 19: 76% → 89% odds for a US strike before March 31.
VICO vs. Polymarket: A Clear Contrast
The comparison with Polymarket on the US strike question is stark:
VICO (Feb 19): 89% — US strikes Iran by March 31
Polymarket (Feb 19): 63.5% — US strikes Iran by March 31
The prediction market was far more volatile and lagged well behind our model’s conviction. Polymarket did not cross back above the 50% threshold until February 27th, by which point our model had been above 75% for two weeks.
Khamenei Out as Supreme Leader — 99% ✓
Our model has been tracking regime change in Iran with equal precision:
52.2% → 99.0%: The odds for Khamenei to be out as Supreme Leader of Iran by the end of 2026 (VICOMYYS).
From January 20th to February 20th, the forecast hovered slightly above 50%, then surged sharply through the final week of February, reaching 99% as of March 1, 2026, at 6:00 AM UTC. The model was well ahead of Kalshi’s widely-reported 68% figure, and while Kalshi was scrambling to clarify its market rules, our model had already priced in near-certainty.
This post on X from Mike McDonough does a good job of illustrating the difference in our take versus Polymarket and Kalshi:
Strait of Hormuz: The Biggest Divergence of All
This is perhaps the starkest example of our model’s edge over prediction markets in this entire episode:
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2026? (VICOCKAH)
VICO (March 1, 8:00 AM UTC): 98.5%
Polymarket (March 1): 35% (▼14%)
Our model opened this question at ~12% on January 20 and built steadily and consistently to 98.5%, a climb of over 86 percentage points across 40 days.
Polymarket, by contrast, sat around 15–20% for most of February before a brief spike to ~63% and then a sharp collapse back to 35%. We think what is going on is that Polymarket is stuck in debates around what counts as a closure of the Strait.
The value in VICO is that our models are targeted at providing guidance, not creating betting markets. In this situation, the VICO model is calling out that there is a de facto closure of the Strait. See here the Detailed Reasoning found in the Monitor section of our site under this forecast ticker:
The Current 96.0% probability reflects a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with a high likelihood of meeting the resolution criteria for a complete cessation of commercial maritime traffic for over 24 hours.
What’s Next:
Some possible events we are tracking:
67%: The current clerical regime maintains control of Iran through the next 90 days.
23%: The chance that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) unseat or overthrow the clerical regime of Iran in the next 90 days.
10%: the chance that pro-Shah forces establish effective governance over the majority of Iranian territory, including Tehran, in the next 90 days?
9%: Reza Pahlavi II is recognized as the de facto or de jure head of state or government of Iran, or as the leader of a transitional government in Iran, in the next 90 days.
About Us
The VICO platform provides a new category of decision-superiority: an AI-powered forecasting, simulation, and scenario-assessment engine that converts qualitative signals—news and expert judgments about real-world events—into standardized, quantitative probabilities and insights.
VICO empowers decision-makers with measurable insight into what is likely to happen and what could happen, replacing slow, subjective human analysis or capricious prediction markets with continuously updated, model-driven forecasts.
Our models are rigorously backtested, achieving Brier Scores below 0.15. (Note: Specific Brier Scores and backtesting information can be provided upon request to our customers.)
Learn more and obtain a beta account at www.vico.io or email us at inquire@vico.io
All data and content is owned by and Copyright of Vico Technologies Inc.